Bernard Reynolds · November 4, 2026
Democratic candidates won every statewide race on Georgia's ballot, with about 99 percent of the expected vote counted as of about 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 4, and the Senate stays Republican. Control of the House comes down to a few close districts. This is the final edition of Georgia Election Watch, and every figure below is unofficial.
The AP projected Jon Ossoff (D), the incumbent, the winner of the U.S. Senate race over Mike Collins (R) at 7:56 p.m. ET Tuesday. Reported totals were 2,466,207 to 1,711,747, or 59 percent to 41 percent, a margin of 754,460 votes (AP tally via the AJC and NBC News, about 8 p.m. ET Wednesday).
The AP projected Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) the winner of the governor's race over Rick Jackson (R) at 9:25 p.m. ET. The same tally showed 54 percent to 46 percent, 2,271,388 to 1,908,837, with about 4.18 million votes counted in the race.
The AP projected Josh McLaurin (D) the winner for lieutenant governor over Greg Dolezal (R) at 10:32 p.m., Penny Brown Reynolds (D) for secretary of state over Tim Fleming (R) at 10:41 p.m., and Tanya Miller (D) for attorney general over Brian Strickland (R) at 10:50 p.m. Each showed 56 percent to 44 percent on the AJC page.
WSB-TV reported, citing unofficial Secretary of State results rather than AP calls, that Democrats Katherine Juhan-Arnold (agriculture), Keisha Sean Waites (insurance), Nikki Porcher (labor) and Lydia Powell (school superintendent) defeated the Republican incumbents at 11:14 p.m. At 11:17 p.m. it reported Peter Hubbard and Shelia Edwards as the winners of the two Public Service Commission seats, District 3 and District 5. The Current, citing the AP's Tuesday-night calls, reported that Democrats now hold three of the five commission seats, which it described as the first Democratic majority in decades.
No statewide race is reported as headed to the December 1 runoff; Georgia requires a majority, and each statewide leader is above 50 percent. The smallest statewide margin on the AJC page, in the agriculture commissioner race, was about 7.7 points, far outside the 0.5 percent recount threshold. In Congress, the AP had called all 14 districts by 12:15 a.m. ET, the last being District 1, where James Kingston (R) led 51 percent to 49 percent, about 7,700 votes. Rick Allen (R) led District 12 by 52 percent to 48 percent.
The Senate stays Republican. Republicans won 29 of the 56 seats and Democrats 27, with none undecided in my feed. Democrats flipped four seats, Districts 37, 42, 45 and 48, and three incumbents lost. Twenty-nine is a majority, and Lieutenant Governor-elect Josh McLaurin (D) will preside.
The House is leaning Democratic but is not final. The AP-based Fox 5 Atlanta feed, about 8 p.m. ET Wednesday, has Democrats with 84 seats decided and Republicans 82, with 14 unsettled, and 91 is a majority. That feed does not carry Districts 39, 64, 81, 134, 137 and 180. The AJC, Georgia Recorder and 11Alive report that Democrat Mishael White defeated Rep. Noelle Kahaian in District 81, and Fox 5's own map tally shows 93 Democrats and 86 Republicans, with District 151 headed to a December 1 runoff. Nine seats in my feed have changed hands, eight from Republican to Democratic and one the other way, and nine incumbents lost.
Democrats can lose both of the closest races and still hold a majority, but not a third close seat. Democrat Chris Luchey leads by 27 votes in District 103 and Democrat Harry James by 59 votes in District 154, both inside Georgia's recount range. Districts 29 (131 votes) and 53 (172 votes) are also close. House Speaker Jon Burns (R) said, "While a few key seats remain within the recount margin, we still have a strong, resilient and committed caucus." If the Democratic majority holds, it would be the party's first in the House since 2004.
I am not projecting the House, and none of this is certified.
The sources I reviewed give no count of outstanding provisional, absentee-cure or military and overseas ballots. Counties certify by 5:00 p.m. on Monday, November 9, and the state by 5:00 p.m. on Friday, November 20. Any runoff would be December 1. A recount may be requested when the margin is 0.5 percent or less, within two business days after the state certifies, so the closest House races will not be final until late November.
The session convenes January 11, 2027, with a new governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and attorney general, and with chamber leadership and committee assignments still to be set. Organizations with a 2027 issue should confirm who will chair the committees that handle their subject, in particular appropriations, ways and means, and the committee of jurisdiction, and identify which sponsors of their bills are leaving. Between now and January 11, request meetings with new members and the transition teams, update your issue brief for a changed set of decision makers, and decide who will carry the issue before committee assignments are made.
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Bernard Reynolds is the principal of True North Strategies, a Georgia public affairs firm.
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