Bernard Reynolds · October 21, 2026
Georgia has counted about 1,190,000 early ballots, and we're more than 4 percent ahead of this point in 2022. Here's what that tells you, and what it doesn't. A big early vote tells you a lot about turnout. It tells you almost nothing about who wins.
As of about 8:30 this morning, Wednesday, October 21, Georgia has counted about 1,190,000 early ballots. That's the state's own count, and it works out to nearly one voter in every six. About 210,000 of those came in since yesterday morning. That's a busy Tuesday, and I'd tip my hat to every person who stood in it.
Mail ballots are a small part of the picture. About 56,000 have been accepted out of about 151,000 requested. Most Georgians are voting early, in person.
We are, and I'll admit I like saying it. Another tracker, GeorgiaVotes, counts both years the same way, and it has us more than 4 percent ahead of this point in 2022. Last week we were behind. Yesterday it was about 3 percent. So the lead is growing.
Here's my caution. GeorgiaVotes runs on a different source and a different clock than the state's count, so the two won't match exactly. Use it for the comparison with 2022 and nothing else.
Early voting started well behind 2022's pace. A week ago we trailed by a third. By Saturday we were even, and we've been ahead ever since. That's a big swing in a week. Maybe it's enthusiasm. Maybe it's how voting days and hours were scheduled this year compared with last. I don't know, and I'd rather say so than guess.
I know you want to ask about the parties. Georgia doesn't register voters by party, so any split you see is an estimate. The data firm L2 builds a model from voter files. Its latest estimate says about 56 percent of early voters look Democratic, 38 percent look Republican, and 7 percent are neither. It's a model, not an official count. It tells you who showed up, not how anyone voted. And we don't have a 2022 version to compare it to.
Metro Atlanta, mostly. Here are the biggest counties, with ballots accepted as of 8:34 this morning, the change since yesterday morning, and the modeled party split (shares of each county's modeled voters, not of the official ballots):
Tomorrow. One day isn't a trend. I want to see whether the pace holds or whether this was a surge. Early voting runs through October 30, and Election Day is November 3.
The people elected this fall write the rules when the General Assembly opens on January 11. Strong turnout means they walk in knowing who showed up. It's not just the governor. It's not just the Senate race. It's who is in the room when your bill gets heard.
So let me ask you something. If the session started tomorrow, who would be carrying your issue? And what would it feel like to find out the answer is nobody? Relationships get built before you need them, not after.
If you've got something coming in 2027 and you'd like to talk it through, grab a time with me: https://calendly.com/bernardreynolds/true-north-strategy-conversation
Bernard Reynolds is the principal of True North Strategies, a Georgia public affairs firm.
