Georgia Election Watch: 7.59% of active voters have an accepted early ballot, as of Oct. 16

As of 9:33 a.m. ET on October 16, the most recent official snapshot available, 7.59 percent of Georgia's 7,531,260 active voters had an accepted early ballot, and 24,494 of the 138,164 mail ballots requested had been accepted. Georgia figures below are as of October 16.

Georgia early voting

The Georgia Secretary of State's count stood at 571,708 accepted early ballots, up 189,442 from 382,266 on October 15. Early voting runs through October 30, and the deadline to apply for an absentee ballot is October 23. The dashboard's 2022 comparison, drawn from GeorgiaVotes as of 10:13 a.m. ET on October 16, put 2026 at 552,066 against 582,064 at the same point in 2022, or 5.2 percent behind.

Accepted early ballots as of October 16, the one-day increase, and the modeled Democratic and Republican shares:

• Statewide: 571,708, up 189,442; modeled 58 percent Democratic, 38 percent Republican
• Fulton: 69,336, up 23,223; modeled 77.0 percent Democratic, 18.1 percent Republican
• DeKalb: 47,322, up 15,112; modeled 87.6 percent Democratic, 9.4 percent Republican
• Cobb: 46,709, up 15,154; modeled 62.0 percent Democratic, 33.1 percent Republican
• Gwinnett: 41,407, up 13,931; modeled 64.8 percent Democratic, 28.5 percent Republican

Georgia does not register voters by party, so the party columns are modeled estimates from L2 voter data, not official results. The statewide figure (58 percent Democratic, 38 percent Republican, 4 percent neither) rests on 374,190 voters as of October 15, older than the official count, and has no 2022 comparison. It estimates who voted, not how.

National early-vote snapshot

National counts differ by tracker and date. CBS News reported 3.6 million early ballots on October 13, Spectrum News reported more than 4 million on October 14, and TargetSmart's Tom Bonier cited nearly 5 million as of October 14. The University of Florida Election Lab, led by Michael McDonald, reported 6.2 million early votes, 1.4 million of them in person, in an article published October 15. These counts have not been reconciled, and I could not verify a same-point 2022 national comparison. Georgia drew 188,668 in-person voters on October 13, against 134,655 on the first day in 2022, according to McDonald.

U.S. Senate

A YouGov poll for FOX 5 Atlanta, conducted September 15 to 18 among 3,447 registered voters with a margin of error of 2.7 points, showed Jon Ossoff (D) at 51 percent and Mike Collins (R) at 41 percent, with 6 percent undecided. The candidates held their second debate on October 13 in Atlanta, covering immigration, tariffs, and Iran.

Governor

The same poll showed Rick Jackson (R) at 45 percent and Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) at 44 percent, with 9 percent undecided. That is within the margin of error.

Public Service Commission

Two seats are on the ballot, and Republicans currently hold a 3-2 majority, according to Ballotpedia. In District 3, Peter Hubbard (D) faces Fitz Johnson (R). In District 5, Shelia Edwards (D), Josh Tolbert (R), and Thomas Blooming (L) are running for the seat Tricia Pridemore (R) is leaving. If both Democrats win, partisan control changes. A District 5 race without a majority winner goes to a December 1 runoff.

Why this matters for 2027

The General Assembly convenes January 11, 2027, with a new governor, a Senate result, and possibly a different utility commission in place. Organizations with an issue should not wait for results. Decide who will carry your issue, identify the committees that will hear it, and begin building relationships before the runoff.

Schedule a strategy conversation: https://calendly.com/bernardreynolds/true-north-strategy-conversation

Bernard Reynolds is the principal of True North Strategies, a Georgia public affairs firm.