Bernard Reynolds · October 18, 2026
The count is up 95,513 from 742,451 in the October 17 snapshot (8:32 a.m. ET). That increase spans the period that includes Saturday, October 17, and is smaller than the 170,743 added in the prior snapshot. The dashboard's 2022 comparison, drawn from GeorgiaVotes, has 2026 at 837,390 against 825,380 at the same point in 2022, or 1.46 percent ahead. On October 16 the same comparison showed 2026 5.2 percent behind. The comparison uses a different source and timestamp than the official count, so treat the percentage as approximate. Early voting runs through October 30, and the deadline to apply for an absentee ballot is October 23.
Accepted early ballots as of October 18, the change since the October 17 snapshot, and the modeled Democratic and Republican shares from the October 16 model file:
Georgia does not register voters by party, so the party columns are modeled estimates from L2 voter data, not official results. The statewide model (56.6 percent Democratic, 38.6 percent Republican, 4.7 percent neither) rests on 542,331 voters as of 12:30 p.m. ET on October 16, almost two days older than the official count. The October 15 model, built on 374,190 voters, showed 57.7 percent Democratic and 37.9 percent Republican. The samples differ, so the shift is not a trend. The model estimates who voted, not how.
The most recent national counts I could verify still range from 3.6 million (CBS News, October 13) to 6.2 million (University of Florida Election Lab, reported October 15), depending on the tracker and the date. I found no newer national total and no same-point 2022 comparison. Early-vote totals measure participation, not preference.
An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted October 12 and 13 among 800 likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.46 points, showed Rick Jackson (R) at 49 percent and Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) at 47 percent, with 4 percent undecided, according to Atlanta News First. That is within the margin of error. The earlier YouGov poll for FOX 5 Atlanta, conducted September 15 to 18, had Jackson at 45 and Bottoms at 44. Jackson skipped the Georgia Public Broadcasting debate, saying voters ask him about affordability and gas prices.
On October 16, Jackson shared a stage with Mike Collins and President Trump at a rally in Dalton. Jackson pledged to cut property and income taxes, a proposal that would have to move through the General Assembly. I found no new Senate poll. The YouGov poll had Jon Ossoff (D) at 51 percent and Collins (R) at 41 percent, with 6 percent undecided, and the two held their second debate on October 13.
Two seats are on the ballot, and Republicans hold a 3-2 majority, according to Ballotpedia. In District 3, Peter Hubbard (D) faces Fitz Johnson (R). In District 5, Shelia Edwards (D), Josh Tolbert (R), and Thomas Blooming (L) are running for the seat Tricia Pridemore (R) is leaving. If both Democrats win, partisan control changes. A race without a majority winner goes to a December 1 runoff.
The General Assembly convenes January 11, 2027, with a new governor, a Senate result, and possibly a different utility commission in place. Tax proposals, utility regulation, and the budget will all be on the table. Organizations with an issue should not wait for results. Decide who will carry your issue, identify the committees that will hear it, and begin building relationships before the runoff.
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Bernard Reynolds is the principal of True North Strategies, a Georgia public affairs firm.
