Bernard Reynolds · October 16, 2026
On October 16, 2026, Georgia's official early-vote count stood at 571,708 ballots as of 9:33 a.m. ET, an increase of 189,442 from the 382,266 reported as of 7:33 a.m. ET on October 15.
Bernard Reynolds walks through the October 16 early-vote numbers. 2 min 46 sec.
Early voting runs through October 30, and the deadline to apply for an absentee ballot is October 23. The snapshot from the True North Strategies early-vote dashboard shows the following.
The two counts differ by design in source and timing. Measured against the 2022 figure, the official count is about 1.8 percent lower; the dashboard's headline comparison, which uses the GeorgiaVotes count, is 5.2 percent behind 2022. Early turnout is not a forecast of the result. The Secretary of State reported 188,667 in-person votes on October 13, the first day, a record for a midterm.
The most recent poll located is Quantus Insights, fielded September 14 to 16 among 645 likely voters, with a margin of error of 4.3 points. It showed Jon Ossoff at 48.2 percent and Mike Collins at 44.4 percent. At the October 13 Atlanta Press Club debate, the candidates differed on tariffs, refinery capacity, federal background checks, and abortion policy, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
InsiderAdvantage, fielded October 12 and 13 among 800 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.46 points, showed Rick Jackson (R) at 49 percent and Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) at 47 percent, with 4 percent undecided. The lead is within the margin of error. Mr. Jackson did not attend the Georgia Public Broadcasting debate and said he was touring the state instead.
The Atlanta Press Club series held 13 debates over eight days, including contests for school superintendent, agriculture, insurance, and labor commissioner on October 13.
Two of the five seats are on the November 3 ballot, and Republicans now hold a 3-2 majority, according to Ballotpedia.
If Democrats win both seats, the commission would move to a 3-2 Democratic majority. A race without a majority winner goes to a December 1 runoff. Candidates have focused on data centers and who bears grid costs.
The Senate debate turned on federal tariffs and a housing bill. Locally, earlier reporting by WRDW said Augusta's planning staff has a special-called meeting on October 21 on its data center ordinance.
The people elected on November 3 will set the agenda when the General Assembly convenes January 11, 2027. Organizations with an issue should identify now which offices, committees, and agencies will decide it, and open those conversations before the runoff on December 1 and the session calendar fill. Utility regulation, data center siting, and local ordinances are already live questions.
To discuss how your organization should prepare, schedule a strategy conversation: https://calendly.com/bernardreynolds/true-north-strategy-conversation
Bernard Reynolds is the principal of True North Strategies, a Georgia public affairs firm.
