Bernard Reynolds · September 11, 2026
The Georgia governor's race is a dead heat with a slight Democratic lean in the polling averages — and two-plus months to go.
The Matchup
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) — Former Atlanta Mayor; won the May 19 primary outright; endorsed by President Biden.
Rick Jackson (R) — Former state representative and businessman; won the June 16 GOP runoff over Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (52.6%–47.4%).
Polling Averages (as of August 18, 2026)
Aggregator
Jackson (R)
Bottoms (D)
Margin
FiftyPlusOne
44.6%
47.8%
Bottoms +3.2
Race to the WH
45.6%
47.7%
Bottoms +2.1
RealClearPolitics (6-poll avg)
45.4%
47.0%
Bottoms +1.6
All three put the race in a 1.6–3.2 point Bottoms lead — well inside the noise.
Most Recent Individual Polls
Poll
Dates
Jackson
Bottoms
Undecided
InsiderAdvantage (R)
Aug 16–17
46%
46%
8%
Quantus Insights (R)
Jul 29 – Aug 1
45%
46%
8%
Fabrizio Ward / Impact Research (AARP)
Jul 13–16
46%
48%
5%
State Navigate
Jul 10–13
44%
51%
4%
Wick
Jun 27–30
43%
43%
14%
Fox News (Beacon/Shaw)
Jun 23–27
47%
52%
1%
(Sources: Ballotpedia, Wikipedia, 270toWin, RCP — all with sponsor, dates, and MOE as published.)
The Read
1. Too close to call. Five of the last seven polls show Bottoms within 2–5 points. Two show a tie (46–46, 43–43). No recent survey breaks outside the margin of error except a May poll that's stale and small.
2. The freshest data is a tie. The August 16–17 InsiderAdvantage survey — the most recent poll out — has Jackson and Bottoms locked at 46%–46%. That's the number to beat (or beat itself).
3. Undecideds are the swing. Between 4% and 14% undecided depending on the poll. The Wick survey in particular leaves 14% uncommitted — a meaningful chunk that could go either way in the fall.
4. Historical context. This is tighter than 2022 (Kemp +7.5 over Abrams) and closer to the knife-edge 2018 race (Kemp +1.4). Georgia remains a genuine swing state.
What to Watch
Atlanta metro turnout — Bottoms needs the core to show up; Jackson needs the exurbs and downstate to hold.
The undecideds — If they break, the race moves. If they stay home, turnout decides it.
Ossoff's coattails — Senator Ossoff (D) is also on the ballot; AARP polling showed him with a ~9-point lead in July. If he runs ahead of Bottoms, that changes the math.
Bottom line: A toss-up leaning slightly Democratic in the averages, with the freshest poll showing a tie. Expect volatility through October.
Sources: Ballotpedia, Wikipedia (2026 Georgia gubernatorial election), 270toWin, RealClearPolitics, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the WH, Pollsmax. All polls cited with sponsor, dates, and margin of error as published.
